It is now a historical fact that the fall of the Peoples Democratic Party in 2015 and the failure of Goodluck Jonathan to secure reelection was largely due to the fracture and the activities of opposition within the party, and not singularly the electability of the All Progressives Congress and its candidate, Muhammadu Buhari.
Recall the activities of members of the party known as the New PDP who plagued the party from within until the visible fault lines gave rise a total disintegration as the election drew near. Some of the elements later became members of the APC.
Some had said the PDP died on August 31, 2013, when seven of its governors, mostly from the north, walked out of its mini-convention. That action blew open its internal wrangling with the question of who will pick its presidential ticket at the core.
The bile spilled around by these “detractors” caught the sympathy of national leaders who had earlier backed Jonathan, one of them, former President Olusegun Obasanjo. Obasanjo’s persistent battering of Jonathan over his handling of security and economic issues further weakened his popularity and set the stage for the wreckage of the PDP once-invisible electoral machine.
While the PDP crumbled under its own weight, the APC in February 2013 arose from the rubbles of a coalition formed by the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), and the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) along with a breakaway faction of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) and the new-PDP.
A resolution reached for a formation of a new political party was signed by Tom Ikimi, who represented the ACN; Senator Annie Okonkwo on behalf of APGA; Ibrahim Shekarau, the Chairman of ANPP’s Merger Committee; and Garba Shehu, the Chairman of CPC’s Merger Committee.
This birthed a major opposition, drawing experiences from the past and armed with the knowledge that keeping away divisive tendencies and forging an impregnable united front was the only way to defeat the behemoth PDP and the path to making history of defeating an incumbent.
The centrifugal forces of ethnicity, religion and partisanship were momentarily muffled by a stronger desire to achieve an uncommon victory. This philosophy drove the electioneering motor of the APC and eventually resulted in a resounding victory. Although there were other notable reasons for the fall of the PDP in 2015, a house divided against itself would certainly fall before an opponent with such a cohesion as demonstrated by the APC.
As we march towards the 2027 general election, there appears to be a parallel in the current political evolution. However, it is instructive to mention that the players are the same, despite the switch of roles and different positioning.
Now the APC is the incumbent heavily troubled by aggrieved members within its ranks. It is not likely that it would survive this implosion if something is not urgently done to quench the raging fire.
These out-of-favour APC members have attracted their kinds in other opposition political parties, especially from the PDP, whose lust for power can hardly be assuaged. They seem to be treading the path of the 2013 coalition, demonstrating a willingness for compromise and merging into a formidable force of opposition.
These elements have chosen a platform, African Democratic Congress, with a promise to do things differently and to bring prosperity to Nigerians. They are also bringing together the wounded from the fierce electoral battles of 2023. Peter Obi, Atiku Abubakar, Nasir El-rufai, Rauf Aregbesola and the likes are pulling themselves together under the leadership of the proponent of the doctrine of necessity, David Mark.
Goodluck Jonathan is adding flavour to the mix, recently frolicking with these desperate players, suggesting he could return to the race for presidency on this platform. A recent meeting he had with Mark and other leaders of the ADC is simply another deft touch to the political moves and confidence building strategies of the coalition.
The coalition however, has reached a turning point and a major curve in its plot to define the moment. It has ordered all coalition members to confirm their allegiance to the ADC by resigning their membership of their respective political parties. The bulk of the leadership of the coalition are from the PDP and the APC. In the coming days Nigerians should witness the weakening of the APC and the PDP when their bigwigs formalise their crossover.
Politicians are mostly concerned about their survival and they only gravitate towards where such is guaranteed. While we naturally expect mass resignations, that might not be the case as they will be counting the cost and weighing the options. Would Atiku now resign from the PDP, Obi from the Labour Party and so on and so forth? These resignations will definitely catch the headlines but the ripples will be measured by how it affects the ruling APC.
The ruling party is certainly not unaware of the dangers posed by the coalition. It certainly benefited from a similar contrivance in the build up to the 2015 elections. It will pay dearly if it travel the same road of indifference which the PDP trod in the wake of the gang up against the Jonathan administration. So, we expect a fight.
An ADC victory will be decided by the tenacity of the drive for unity and a foolproof structure impervious to the infiltrations of the ruling party which has seen the maiming of the PDP through the likes of Nyesom Wike.
What is interesting about the current politics is the fact that what goes around comes around and what you sow you reap. If you pull down a government for incompetence, you will be pulled out if you also play the incompetent.
Nigerians are yearning for a government that will place them at the centre of socio-economic policies and give them a reason to be proud as Nigerians. Will the ADC offer that alternative? It is yet to be known.
However the undoing of the coalition will certainly be the conflicting ambitions of the aspiring leaders of the ADC. The footprints of the APC prior to the 2015 election is instructive. The godfathers kept away their aspirations and backed a popular candidate that could win votes for the party. They succeeded. Should the ADC do otherwise, it will be dead on arrival.
It is going to be harder this time. Jonathan played fairly, and lost. It is not likely that we will see the same in 2027. The manners of the conduct of all governorship elections under this administration are pointers to that fact.
Nigerians had always wanted a change. A change they got in the Buhari APC government, but far from what they expected – it was for the worse. Can ADC deliver that needed change? We should be able to tell the evening from the set of the dawn.