The move by the Rivers State House of Assembly to impeach Governor Siminalayi Fubara serves as an echo from the recent past and has been expected since the drumbeats of war resumed. Now we can see through the cease fire agreements brokered by the President Bola Tinubu leading to the reinstatement of the governor after the six months of Emergency Rule in the state.
FCT Minister, Nyesom Wike had traversed the expanses of the state’s political structures, including traditional institutions hinting of an agreement. That agreement, from Wike’s public utterances, is for Rivers people to support President Bola Tinubu in the coming election, but must reject any attempt by Fubara to seek reelection.
Wike has also announced that Fubara’s second term in office will bury him alive politically, a situation he and his supporters have vowed never to allow.
In his predictive piece on September 25, 2025, Ismail Omipidan, under the title, ‘Why Fubara May Fight Again,’ highlighted certain outcomes from the compromise that ushered in the fragile peace secured for the governor’s return.
Omipidan raised concerns over the details of the peace deal that paved the way for Fubara’s reinstatement. The peace deal which was shrouded in secrecy, was speculative on a one term for Fubara as well as other conditions that heavily favoured Wike.
The writeup also cited Fubara’s subsequent broadcast where he tacitly confirms the concerns of his supporters over the tenets of the agreement. He hinted that nothing was “irretrievably lost” as there was time to make adjustments, reconciliations and inclusiveness.
This projection of a possible “adjustment” to the agreement may have reflected the recent political realignment in Rivers resulting in the defection of the governor from the PDP to the ruling APC, tactically worming his way into the structure of the ruling party’s complex hierarchy.
This deft move by the governor, apparently tilted the balance of power away from Wike’s stranglehold. Fubara’s supporters already have been cheering that move on the chessboard which attempts to checkmate Wike’s overbearing control of the levers of power in the state.
Those observing the state of affairs in Rivers were therefore not surprised when the renewed hostilities in the state gained traction within the leadership circle of the APC. The altercation between Wike and the ruling party’s national Secretary offered an insight into what may be underway as the battle gets tougher.
But the FCT Minister has warned that Rivers is a no go area for anybody, and that all should steer clear of the contentions within it. The APC national leadership had drawn the clear lines of authority as it affects governors of the party in their respective states. They have declared that Governors are the leaders of the party in their respective states, Rivers inclusive.
Some have surmised that the current stand off offers the APC an opportunity to strengthen its party supremacy stance as earlier declared, however, the posture of the President is a major factor. Mr Wike draws his fuel from the support of the President.
As it stands, Wike and Fubara are on the same pedestal as it relates to the support for the President in 2027. It is also obvious that other factors will come to play as to whether the President will succumb to Wike’s personal political pursuit by sacrificing Fubara or uphold the party’s position.
Analysts are convinced that sacrificing either Fubara or Wike by the President will be predicated on how it will affect the President’s fortunes in Rivers in 2027. When the charts and graphs have been plotted, the decision will be taken. Wike and Fubara are obviously the pawn in this tactical chess game. The goal is 2027. Wike’s efficacy could ultimately expire after the election. The negotiations and decisions must take place now as the ball rolls speedily into the goal area. Who eventually scores the goal may only matter to the President after all is said and done.
But who will protect Fubara from the imminent fall? Will the national leadership of the APC step in now that it is an all APC affair? No word is coming out strongly to contain the escalators nor any restraining peg against the impeachment move.
Every state governor wants to enjoy the constitutional right of a second term in office. There is however no guarantees on this assertion where godfathers are the sole determinants of how this is applied. The Ambode treatment in Lagos is a classical case of the constitution being set aside by the powers of a godfather.
Omipidan submitted that the only reason Fubara might be willing to fight again is if, after abiding religiously by the terms of the peace deal without reservations, he is still denied a second-term bid. Wike’s drumbeats has the rhythms similar to what happened with Ambode in Lagos.
Wike’s reaction had been seismic. He had taken nothing for granted, choosing rather to lead a well publicised campaign against the governor and personally marshaling the needed sentiments to establish a strong case against Fubara and his co-travellers. This preemptive move by Wike has been knocked into place by the impeachment notice from the House of Assembly, setting the stage for a full blown war.
There will be no hiding place. The fight will be tight. It will be to the finish. Based on what has been said so far, it will be the winner taken all. Yes, Fubara will fight again. Whether he wins or loses, it is time to stop running. It is the fight for survival, and we are going to see the opponents throwing everything they have into it.
The triumph of Wike will spell doom for Fubara and vise versa. whichever way the pendulum swings, there will be a consequence in political liabilities. How the President and the APC handle the current dilemma will either mitigate or aggravate the pending damages. No one would get out unscathed.