Oluwole Josiah
The last Ondo State governorship election held on October 10, 2020. Barely two weeks to that election, a couple of violent eruptions were reported in different parts of the state, underlining the high stakes and the nature of rivalry between the ruling All Progressives Congress and the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party.
Less than two weeks to the election, there were bloody clashes between the supporters of both parties at Ipele and Owo towns, both in Owo Local Government Area .Both parties had blamed each other for the cause of rue violence, just as the then PDP candidate, Eyitayo Jegede alleged an assassination attempt during the attacks.
As Ondo State residents approach Saturday’s 2024 election, the scenerios are completely different even though it is still a trade of tackles between the APC and the PDP. The personalities involved have are treaded softly and the political excitements excitements are completely lacking.
The campaigns are going on peacefully and without any serious political incidences across all the local government areas. The usual noise from horn speakers tied to branded vehicles are not a regular sights in the suburban areas and outskirts of the Akure metropolis. Even the security deployments are being delayed less than a week to the election.
Some have described it as peaceful and that which is good for the people, yet others say it was because the APC and the incumbent governor, Lucky Aiyedatiwa do not have a vibrant opposition capable of ruffling their feathers.
The effect of zoning
However, many have agreed that the factor of zoning the ticket to the southern senatorial district by the two leading parties killed competition right from the primaries of the parties. The zoning ensured that candidates from one part of the state vied for the tickets of their parties, locking out more competent and vibrant aspirants from the race.
Leo Olabisi, a journalist based in Akure observed that the content of the campaigns so far is a reflection of the quality of the candidates and their ability to mobilise the people across the different senator districts.
He said since the two leading candidates are from the South, the people at central and north seem to be laid back and watching how the two “brothers” would sort out themselves, since whoever wins would not necessarily make any material difference to them.
“It is more of the politics of region and those who have no candidates in this governorship election are not really enthusiastic at all, they will just wait until election day and go and cast their votes or may not even come out at all,” he said.
There is also the assumption that Agboola Ajayi and Lucky Aiyedatiwa do not resonate politically beyond their southern enclave. Both of them served one principal, Oluwarotimi Akeredolu, now late, as deputy governors. Both of them ended that office on the note allegations of betrayal. Both of them stuffed with the allegations of certificate forgeries and domestic misconducts respectively and they are not passionately followed outside their home base.
Besides Ajayi, who is a grassroots politician, serving as Local Government Chairman, House of Reps member and deputy governor, his main opponent in the APC is not as experienced politically. The deputy governorship position was his first elective office which he won with the late Akeredolu’s reelection. Insiders in the APC claimed they are “Lucky” given the nature of the opposition and the weaknesses of the PDP. A party official who would not want to be named, said even the APC is not spending so much money. Not much money is being given out for mobilisation. The rallies are reduced to local communities where not much money is needed. “Their campaigns have been streetwise and house to house,” he said. The conclusion is however that the campaigns have not been intense and the people seems to be unperturbed.
Projected Voting Outcomes
Although the number of registered voters had increased from a total of 1,822,346 in 2020 to 2,053,061 registered voters at the close of last CVR, voting patterns are likely to remain the same despite the zoning arrangement.
Ondo Central has the highest concentration of registered voters, Ondo North has a long history of high voter turnout when compared to other senatorial districts since the conduct of the 2011 election. This is the observation of Yiaga, a civil society organisation monitoring the Ondo State election.
It says with the exception of the 2011 presidential election, Ondo central senatorial district has the highest case of rejected votes in all election preceding the 2020 election.
Ondo has a total, 203 electoral wards/ registration areas, as well as 3,933 polling units.
Akure South LGA which is the Central District, has the highest registered voters with about 300,000 registered voters. It is most of the time the deciding factor in the election of the candidate.
Akure South from where the two leading candidates hail from will be split between the two almost 50-50. While Ajayi is from Ese-Odo LGA, Aiyedatiwa is from Ilaje LGA. Other local governments in the South such as Okitipupa, Irele and Ile-Oluji-Okeigbo will fall to either of the sides.
Jimoh Ibrahim
Jimoh Ibrahim, the senator representing Ondo South, party loyalists believe, could tilt the balance of he decides not to support the governor. As things stand, he is yet to openly declare his support for the governor, keeping everyone guessing what he could do in the last minutes of the campaigns.
Mr Ibrahim was a contestant for the ticket and when he lost, determined to scuttle the APC bid for seat through the courts. It took the intervention of President Bola Tinubu to drop his litigation. He has since been silent on anything regarding the election.
A source at the APC Secretariat said Ibrahim could be a placing his political career in a dangerous position if he chose not to back the governor for Saturday’s election. His return to the Senate will certainly be at the instance of the governor, as it has been the case with other elections to the National Assembly.
Aketi Factor
Across the political horizon at the moment are the hushed voices of the Aketi movement. Not much is being heard about them because of the fact that the zoning had eliminated all Aketi loyalists who had earlier indicated interest in running for the office. People like Wale Akinteriwa, former Finance Commissioner to Akeredolu, and his likes, did not any chance to emerge.
The bitter battles between the Aketi group(known as the cabal) and Aiyedatiwa, while Mr Akeredolu was ill and his subsequent death, had left a huge gap of enmity between the two.
“If you listen to all of Aiyedatiwa’s campaign, you will hardly hear him talk about Aketi, He is doing everything possible to destroy the former governor’s legacies. He is keeping him out of his campaign completely,” a member of the ruling party said.
Despite the fears, party faithfuls and Aketi loyalists are not likely to turn against him at this crucial moment, as they considered that the APC is in a better position to win the coming election.
“I cannot believe that those who were loyalists to Aketi could turn around 360 degrees when Aiyedatiwa assumed the governorship, everyone wants to eat and survive,” the party member said.
It is however clear that the remnants of the Aketi supporters are breathing threats and would do everything to ensure the failure of the governor on Saturday, November 16.
Daring Opposition
The PDP has continued to drive home the refrain that the APC had become unlucky with Lucky Aiyedatiwa, vowing to defeat the incumbent in the coming election. The efforts of the PDP despite its weaknesses, is doubtless commendable. It had weakened by series of defections and depletions from those who should have braced it’s broken umbrella.
Mr Ajayi is reeling out promises and programmes to convince the people that he was the right candidate to govern the state. He is believed to be very generous with money and has the capacity to dispense oodles of it. His efforts in this direction will certainly be cancelled out with the vaults of public funds available to the APC both at the centre and the state.
Other parties
It is difficult to ignore other parties as we go into the election. There are a few strong crowd pullers who would play the spoilers in certain polling units and wards. Some of them include Olugbenga Edema, formerly of the APC and now with ANPP; Sola Ebiseni of the Labour Party, who was in the PDP; and Bamidele Akingboye of the SDP.
Analysts have ruled out any possibility of mergers or step down by any candidate due to the gap between the major contenders and the rest in terms of their electoral value. However, there are feelers that some of the opposition parties might be working indirectly for the big ones in the coming polls.
Vote Trading already started
Party supporters are aware of the role money will play in Saturday’s election. As an Akure-based politician, Samson Akani, noted, the victory will certainly be determined by who is able to mobilise most of the voters to the polling units on election day.
“This is what is done. Before the election voters who are basically the aged and young people, have already been talked to on what they would do with their cards on election day,” he said.
“They will be met in their homes and told when they will receive and that is it. In the morning of election they will be told what to and when to come out and vote. This is what will happen, and it has already started.”
Yiaga, in its pre election assessment report said the political parties were already inducing voters with gifts in form of cash and food items.
“The ruling APC has been observed distributing fertilisers, rice, cassava, and maize to community leaders tasked with distributing these items within their areas of influence,” the report noted.
The APC immediately denied the allegation saying Yiaga had been misled by its observers.
As of the time of writing this piece, the towns and cities in Ondo State are quiet and people are going about their lawful businesses. The campaigns are running well and the police have little worries.
The people have been assured that over 40,000 security personnel will be on ground to keep the peace. INEC has also assured that the votes will not only count, but that the election will be a great improvement on what happened in Edo State.
All efforts may have been put in to ensure a peaceful and credible elections, but, as Mr Akani noted, majority of the electorates may not be voting purely on the issues canvassed, but based on what they will get from voting on election day. That is the real concern. Until will cross this line, the rhetorics will remain the weapon of politicians, while the people endure the peril.