To lose an election as a sitting president or governor under a political party is a political upset that is not very tolerable in Africa, nay Nigeria. Albeit, we have recorded such uncommon occurrences in very interesting elections in our country, even though fingers have pointed to the invisible hands of manipulations and money politics.
In the history of the United States, nine presidents served one term or less without being re-elected. These include John Adams, John Quincy Adams, Martin Van Buren, Benjamin Harrison, William Taft, Herbert Hoover, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and George H.W. Bush. Donald Trump until his recent victory, was the tenth, but his reelection in the just concluded US polls stood him out as a jinx breaker and has become only the second president to win two non-consecutive terms. Grover Cleveland won the electoral college in 1892, making him the first U.S. president to serve non-consecutive presidential terms.
Trump is regarded as the most controversial US president in recent times. He is the darling of the Republicans and, at one point achieving a 95% approval rating within his party in the year of his reelection bid.
Many on the right continue to see Trump as a political hero, nominating three conservative justices to the Supreme Court, pulling the U.S. out of the Paris Climate Accord, and passing a major tax cut that many saw as widening the wealth gap.
He was faulted for his perceived uneven response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and for many other reasons, never received any thumbs up from Democrats or independents.
He was the first president to be impeached twice. He had an overall Gallup approval rating of 46% in the month before the 2020 election. He lost the election by 74 electoral votes to Joseph R. Biden in the election. Trump maintained that Biden’s win was the result of rigging, and was unsuccessful in proving this through subsequent state audits and lawsuits.
He was however acquitted after his second impeachment—this time for his role in the January 6, 2021, riots at the Capitol building, even though his critics contend that his unsubstantiated claims about election fraud incited the participants.
Despite his failure in 2020, Trump never gave up in his bid to return to the Whitehouse. To worsen his woes, Trump was on May 30, 2024, convicted by New York jury on multiple felony charges. He became the first-ever prominent presidential candidate with a felony conviction. As of September 2024, he faced dozens of felony counts and multiple court cases.
In spite of all of his adversities, Trump’s policy and ideological consistency spiked his popularity within his Republican party, leading to his renomination for President.
Whether you like him or not, his nationalistic posturing endeared him to most US citizens who believe their interests would be well covered by him as President.
Today, he has been reelected the 47th President of the US and at aged 78 at the time of the election, he also became the oldest person to be elected President of the United States.
The fortunes of Nigeria’s Peoples Democratic Party started on the downward side when Goodluck Ebele Jonathan lost his reelection bid in 2015 to the dogged Muhammadu Buhari. The party was on a smooth ride from the return of the country to democracy in 1999. Olusegun Obasanjo planted the flag of the PDP deeply on the sands of politics ensuring that after him, only the PDP was in control. He ensured he was succeeded by Umar Yar’Adua whose demise ensured his deputy, Jonathan took over. After Jonathan’s first tenure, the PDP succumbed to a centrifugal force which weakened its structures and created cracks in the party. The cracks created opposition groups within the party that enabled and emboldened the opposition parties to regroup to wrest power from the PDP. The fall of the PDP was secured by a dogged and united opposition. That opposition is now the APC whose grip on power is sending waves across the states originally of the PDP.
Ondo State fell to the APC in 2016, and placed many of the PDP members either as permanent exiles of politics or as political sojourners in the APC. Recently, the APC also swept Edo State, with Monday Okpebholo emerging as governor, after defeating the ruling PDP and its candidate, Asue Ighodalo.
Another election is about to take place in Ondo State. It is a revival of long standing rivalry. The PDP is feebly attempting to dethrone the APC which has a backing of the federal government with all its security structures.
Agboola Ajayi, who is the candidate of the PDP in Ondo State is an experienced politician who rose from the grassroots as a local government chairman to becoming a federal lawmaker before assuming the office of deputy governor in the state. He is certainly a strong candidate to withstand the challenge of an APC- backed Lucky Aiyedatiwa.
But the opposition party has been hunted by the shadows of of disunity orchestrated by leadership betrayals.
From the activities of the G-5 and other elements such as the Fayoses, Wikes, Mimikos and the likes have weakened the reins of the party. The fractures suffered by the party has led to the gay of defections. Even those who contested primaries, perhaps did it half heatedly and they are either with the ruling party or have joined other little known parties to pursue their political goals.
The lack of party values and consistent ideologies is the major difference between our kind of politics and what we find elsewhere, as demonstrated by Donald Trump and his Republican party, now celebrating a resounding victory in the US presidential election.
To sack a sitting government through the ballot must be deliberate, long term and an accumulation of political goodwill over time. It is true, everyone has the right to associate with a political party of his choice provided it affords him the platform to pursue his political ambition, this was the answer of Agboola when he faced the question of his serial defections at the governorship election debate. But to build a formidable political party that can win elections, even defeat the incumbent, politicians like Agboola must stay in the party whether they win or lose, lead or follow, to build the party structure, reignite the confidence of teaming supporters and members until the electorate finds hope in them.
The South African EFF led by Julius Malema, remains a good example of a political force, although has yet to become a ruling party, but command’s the respect of South Africans and it is the fourth largest party in South Africa’s National Assembly. It could be that at the right time it could pull down the ANC.
As we approach the Ondo election come November 16, the PDP must look beyond the polls, setting new targets for establishing a political party that is ready for a long distance race, with the welfare of the people in mind.
Like Trump’s, a PDP victory is a possibility, whether now or in the future, provided party leaders are willing to pay the price. It will take consistency, building alliances and putting the message right at the doorsteps of the people. To jump out of the party after a loss (as it is the case often), is to further delay any return to power in the nearest future.
As it is said that incumbents are not defeated, but they lose election, a vigilant political party seeking to return to power must be poised to take advantage of the weaknesses of the ruling party, knowing when to throw the killer blow. this was the strategy of the APC, which is a coalition of opposition parties before the 2015 presidential election.
Should the PDP create the needed upset and win the coming governorship election in Ondo State, the idea of opening the doors for returnees who want to swell the ranks of beneficiaries of the spoils should be discouraged. The PDP is in a dire need of healing. Those in the privileged positions in the party should settle down to rebuild and give the country a formidable front for confronting the dictatorship of the ruling party for the good of the common man.